Russia Gambit: the West In Check

When the Berlin Wall cracked and the Iron Curtain fell, the West took a break from the Cold War cynicism that gave spawn to generation of novels and movies. Some of us hoped outright for a world with a Russia that might storm back from its Soviet Dark Age into the midst of the rest of us, it's people rejoicing in their new-found religious and political freedoms.

Not even the most sanguine peacenik among us can now believe that the next twenty years on earth will be remembered for dialog, accord, and a general improvement of humanity. For Russia landed a hay-maker on the West this week with their reaction to Georgia's foray into Ossetia in pursuit of separatists. Georgia, a NATO candidate and an ally of the United States, was overrun by Russia's superior force this week, and Russia will now dictate her terms about the largely Russian breakaway zones of Ossetia and Abkazhia.

There is little we can do about it. Russia has made her move in chess-like fashion. We are in check, we of the West, and we are down a pawn.

Russia has let us know that we are powerless to act. Our military is shackled to Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia has a hand in that too--she has given close cover to Iran in the rising conflict about Teheran's nuclear program, and does a thriving arms and technology business there. She is even playing side by side with China, who likewise ships aid and technology to Iran. And locked into this Iranian sidebar to our own Iraq gambit is the end-game we face.

The end-game is the U.S. and West, pitted against Radical Islam, China, and Russia.

By the way, we are outnumbered.

Russia has chosen this moment to let us know that she swings the balance of power against the West. Europe's relationship with the United States ran aground and sank over the War on Terror. One can hardly imagine a United European fighting force coming into existence at all, for any reason--is there an American that believes that Western Europeans would fight in the face of a Russian onslaught across Eastern Europe? Not I.

Russia knows of our challenges. They know them by heart. First, they know we have the successful but costly Iraq war, in lives 4,000 killed, in money--$600 billion and counting. Then, they know we are a locked into a upward spiral of fuel costs due specifically to the unwillingness of Democrats in Congress to permit an immediate build-out of oil-refining capacity, and to further drill for domestic crude. They also know that we are sending $750 billion a year to largely Islamic countries for oil,while our trade imbalance with China is in excess of $200 billion annually.

They know that we are draining our life's blood into the very veins of people who are at war with our way of life. The Islamic World of 2008 is not convinced that their radicals are wrong, so we feather the nest of potential enemies there. China, for all its "modernization" and "consumerism", is a totalitarian regime that would never tolerate and American freedoms and norms in their country. Even their modernization hurts us, as their added demand due to the pressures of growth have driven oil prices to record highs in the last year.

The Russians know all this. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (we cannot see you, Vladimir Putin, but we know you are there...) can point to the Russian ethnicity of the Georgian separatists, and can make speeches about ethnic cleansing, but he knows the real score. They know Georgia's counterpart Mikheil Saakaskvili will have to accept the loss of one fifth of his country to Russian aggression, and that the mighty U.S. must stand alone against Radical Islam now, and will again stand alone against China, later.

Russia has made her play, and it's a good one. Even if we'd feel more comfortable playing Texas Hold 'em, we'll have to make a chess move.

At this moment, it is their game.